What September 2026's numbers are telling me about PEC

Published October 10, 2026

Can you feel it? The air has turned crisp. And by late afternoon, the light casts long shadows across the fields. And many parts of the County look like they're dipped in gold.

We've been spending our days outside, taking in the cooler air. There's wood to stack, permaculture gardens to prepare, and plenty of other last-minute jobs around the property. Then, as the evenings cool down, we light the wood stove and settle in. There's nothing quite like coming in from the cold to that first crackle of the fire.

Fall is a great time to slow down and take stock. And that goes for the market too.

September is when the County's numbers start to thin out, and this year was no exception. Thirty-one homes sold, down from 34 in August and 49 last September. That is fewer than any month this summer, and it is the line in this report I would pay the most attention to.

The price line is the one that will get the headlines. The average sale came in at $856,868, up 26.6% from August and 8.2% from a year ago. The median jumped to $855,000 from $600,000 in August. I would not read that as prices taking off. Every one of the 31 sales this month was a detached home, with no townhouses or condos in the mix, and with a sample this small a few higher-priced sales move the average a long way. Last month I said one month of price data at this volume is noise, and that holds just as true when the noise points up.

The better gauge is the year to date. The County has averaged $723,965 across 286 sales so far in 2026, against $785,509 across 287 sales at this point last year. The same number of buyers, paying about 8% less on average.

Supply is where the County keeps looking better than last year. Active listings fell again, to 268. That is the fourth straight monthly drop, down from 369 in May, and 17% fewer than last September's 321. New listings picked up to 116 after a quiet August, but still came in below last September's 130.

Put those together and months of inventory sits at 8.6, almost unchanged from 8.5 in August but looser than the 6.6 we had a year ago. In plain terms, there are fewer homes for sale than last fall, and there are also noticeably fewer buyers writing offers. Homes took 65 days to sell on average, quicker than August's 74, and sold at 97% of asking.

Around the region the picture is mixed. Belleville is still the tightest market near us at 5.1 months of inventory, with homes selling in 33 days on average. Brighton firmed up, from 9.0 months in August to 6.6, on 19 sales. Quinte West is moving the other way. Inventory there has climbed from 3.5 months in June to 7.8 in September, with 305 active listings against 236 a year ago.

So where does that leave us? The County is not in a seller's market, and it is not sliding either. Supply has kept tightening all year, which is the encouraging part. What it needs now is buyers, and that is the piece September did not deliver.

September 2026 by the numbers

Average sale price by area, rolling 13 months. Source: Central Lakes Association of REALTORS® monthly statistics.

Interest rates

What changed after that was the conversation around the next decision. With oil prices still high, markets spent the second half of September pricing in a real chance of a rate hike on October 28, and by mid-month the odds were close to a coin flip. Most economists still expected the Bank to hold, but nobody was talking about cuts anymore. Inflation was 3.0% in August, unchanged from July and still above the Bank's 2% target. In the US, the Federal Reserve raised rates on September 18 for the first time in more than three years.

Fixed rates are already feeling it. Five-year fixed mortgages follow the bond market rather than the Bank's rate, and five-year bond yields have climbed to around 3.6%, up from the low 3% range earlier this year. The average five-year fixed rate was 4.94% at the time of writing.

Practically, if you have a pre-approval, check that your rate hold is still in place, and if it is more than 60 days old, refresh it. If you are on a variable rate or your mortgage renews in the next six months, it is worth a conversation with your lender or broker.

What this means for you

If you're buying

This is a good fall to be shopping in the County. There were 268 homes for sale at the end of September and only 31 sold during the month, so most sellers are not seeing multiple offers. You have time to look properly, get your inspections done and negotiate.

Just don't mistake time for a discount. Homes sold at 97% of asking in September, the same as August, so sellers who priced well are holding close to their number. The room is on listings that have been sitting. Anything well past the 65-day average is worth a closer look and a sharper offer.

If you are open to looking beyond the County, Quinte West has the most choice it has had all year, at 7.8 months of inventory and 305 active listings. Belleville is the opposite. At 5.1 months and 33 days on market, a well-priced home there still moves quickly, so have your financing lined up before you book showings.

If you're selling

The good news for sellers is that you have less competition than last fall. There are 268 active listings in the County compared to 321 a year ago, and the count has dropped every month since May.

The harder news is that there are fewer buyers too. Sales were down 37% from last September. The buyers who are out there are choosy, and they are comparing your home against every other listing in its price range before they book a showing.

Two things matter most right now. Price it where the market is, not where you hope it is. Buyers are still paying 97% of asking on homes that are priced right, and simply skipping the rest. And if you are planning to sell this year, get on the market soon. Last fall, County sales held at 49 in October and then fell to 16 in November. A listing that goes stale over the winter is harder to bring back in spring.

Don't read too much into September's jump in average price. It reflects which homes happened to sell, not a lift in what every home is worth. If you want to know what yours would realistically bring today, I am happy to run the numbers for you.

Also this month: The Barn Problem: Buying a Property With a Barn in PEC.